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Oscar Watching: Predicting the 2014 Golden Globes Wins

We’ll have lots to talk about on Monday – the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) and Writers Guild of America (WGA) nominations and the nominees for the USC Scripter Award. But for now, let’s take a stab at what will happen at the Golden Globes on Sunday night. Keep in mind that my picks are admittedly off the beaten path; I’m making some risky calls, so I could be very wrong about what will happen.

In the name of shameless self-promo, you can check out more detailed Oscar musings over at my blog, Awards and Such. Keep in mind that my predictions there and on Screen Invasion might differ, given that I will update both at different times – I’ll update my Screen Invasion picks once a week; I’ll most likely update my blog picks at different intervals.

merylstreep_intothewoods

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Looks like Birdman vs. Into the Woods. We can compare this to 2012, in which lavish Broadway adaptation Les Misérables took down Silver Linings Playbook, a more acclaimed film that had a better shot at the Oscars. But something tells me the HFPA will side with the Oscar front-runner. Unfortunately, the best film in the bunch – that’d be Pride is the least likely to pull off the win.

1. Birdman

2. Into the Woods

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. St. Vincent

5. Pride

theoryofeverything_pic

Best Motion Picture – Drama

A big-scale, buzzed-about historical drama like Selma feels like a very Golden Globes move, but the awards attention for that film has been surprisingly scattered. The esoteric Boyhood hardly feels like something HFPA voters would love, but it’s the front-runner of the year. Meanwhile, the British dramas might cancel each other out – and win other awards, regardless – while Foxcatcher probably barely sneaked in.

1. Boyhood

2. Selma

3. The Theory of Everything

4. The Imitation Game

5. Foxcatcher

davidfincher_gonegirl

Best Director

Richard Linklater should walk away with this one, right?

1. Richard Linklater for Boyhood

2. Ava DuVernay for Selma

3. Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman

4. Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. David Fincher for Gone Girl

BIG EYES

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

We’ve no clear idea who wins here. Emily Blunt seems to have a good shot – big musical, clear Globes favorite who’s yet to win – as does Amy Adams – pre-season Oscar favorite, previous favor with HFPA voters. For various reasons, the outcome here will have little to no effect on Oscar’s picks, so what if voters throw Julianne Moore an extra bone here… or, rather, throw her some love here so someone else can win in drama?

1. Julianne Moore for Maps to the Stars

2. Emily Blunt for Into the Woods

3. Amy Adams for Big Eyes

4. Helen Mirren for The Hundred-Foot Journey

5. Quvenzhané Wallis for Annie

GoneGirl4

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Most of us think Moore has this locked up, but as I mentioned above, she might win the musical or comedy prize instead, paving the way for someone else to win here. On that note, Jennifer Aniston is the kind of star Hollywood loves to honor –especially when they’re heavily campaigning for the attention.

1. Jennifer Aniston for Cake

2. Julianne Moore for Still Alice

3. Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything

4. Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl

5. Reese Witherspoon for Wild

birdman2

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Michael Keaton should be the runaway winner here, though Ralph Fiennes does have a slight chance at upsetting.

1. Michael Keaton for Birdman

2. Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel

3. Bill Murray for St. Vincent

4. Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes

5. Joaquin Phoenix for Inherent Vice

SELMA

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Eddie Redmayne has the buzz necessary to win this – and the Oscar – but David Oyelowo would make sense here, too.

1. Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

2. David Oyelowo for Selma

3. Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game

4. Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler

5. Steve Carell for Foxcatcher

patriciaarquette_boyhood

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

For whatever reason, Patricia Arquette doesn’t seem as locked up at this ceremony as she does at the Oscars. The HFPA might rather throw a bone to The Imitation Game – and, on her third nomination, Keira Knightley – if they feel like spreading the wealth… or recognize a rising star like Emma Stone… or help Meryl Streep break even more records.

1. Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game

2. Emma Stone for Birdman

3. Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

4. Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

5. Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year

robertduvall_judge

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

J.K. Simmons will win the Oscar, and while Edward Norton can certainly pull off a surprise win, Simmons likely gets this, too.

1. J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

2. Edward Norton for Birdman

3. Ethan Hawke for Boyhood

4. Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher

5. Robert Duvall for The Judge

benedictcumberbatch_imitationgame

Best Screenplay

This category often goes its own way, so a win for Wes Anderson would hardly be surprising.

1. Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo for Birdman

3. Richard Linklater for Boyhood

4. Graham Moore for The Imitation Game

5. Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl

Big_hero_6_stills_2

Best Animated Feature Film

The LEGO Movie has everything necessary to win here, though Big Hero 6 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 might steal some votes.

1. The LEGO Movie

2. Big Hero 6

3. How to Train Your Dragon 2

4. The Boxtrolls

5. The Book of Life

ida_pic - 2

Best Foreign Language Film

Ida looks like the clear choice here, having the most stateside exposure of the nominees.

1. Ida (Poland/Denmark)

2. Force Majeure (Sweden)

3. Leviathan (Russia)

4. Tangerines (Estonia)

5. Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem (Israel)

Interstellar

Best Original Score

Will Antonio Sánchez‘s drum score for Birdman take the prize, or will Jóhann Jóhannsson lovely albeit conventional composing for The Theory of Everything win?

1. Antonio Sánchez for Birdman

2. Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything

3. Alexandre Desplat for The Imitation Game

4. Hans Zimmer for Interstellar

5. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Gone Girl

quvenzhanewallis_annie opportunity_clip

Best Original Song

Since “Lost Stars” from Begin Again and “Everything is AWESOME!!!” from The LEGO Movie aren’t here, it should be an easy path to victory for “Glory” from Selma.

1. “Glory” (John Legend and Lonnie Rashid Lynn, Jr., a.k.a. Common) from Selma

2. “Mercy Is” (Patti Smith and Lenny Kaye) from Noah

3. “Opportunity” (Greg Kurstin, Sia Furler, a.k.a. Sia, and Will Gluck) from Annie

4. “Yellow Flicker Beat” (Ella Yelich-O’Connor, a.k.a. Lorde) from The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

5. “Big Eyes” (Elizabeth Grant, a.k.a. Lana Del Rey) from Big Eyes

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Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.