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Oscar Watching: GRAVITY Bringing Other Movies Down?

Gravity won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and Producers Guild of America’s (PGA) top prizes. (It tied with 12 Years a Slave with the latter guild.) I can’t predict a film so many view as “science fiction” to win best picture – not yet – but what wins in its stead?

Best Picture

Remember, voting for the winners begins on Feb. 14, so campaigns still have time to win over voters. (Harvey Weinstein is really trotting out Philomena herself, isn’t he?) Still, 12 Years is the film that, if we account only for subject matter, is undeniably important, so I expect Steve McQueen’s drama to take this award.

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. American Hustle (David O. Russell)

3. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

4. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

5. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallée)

6. Philomena (Stephen Frears)

7. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

8. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

9. Her (Spike Jonze)

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón’s DGA win was obvious, so I imagine he wins here even if the motion-picture academy backs another film in the picture race.

1. Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

3. David O. Russell for American Hustle

4. Alexander Payne for Nebraska

5. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Barring a British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) upset, Cate Blanchett wins. Even then, she’s still the most likely victor. Not too difficult. Amy Adams is the only non-winner in the lineup, but she may have registered too late to be a real threat for the win. There’s always next year (said Deborah Kerr, Thelma Ritter, and Glenn Close).

1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

2. Amy Adams for American Hustle

3. Sandra Bullock for Gravity

4. Judi Dench for Philomena

5. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale is the only nominee without a compelling narrative and the only winner in the lineup, so he’s out, even if he leads picture front-runner American Hustle. Matthew McConaughey won the big awards that usually lead to an Oscar, so he’s the one to beat, but Bruce Dern, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Chiwetel Ejiofor aren’t out of it yet.

1. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

2. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave

3. Bruce Dern for Nebraska

4. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Christian Bale for American Hustle

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Lupita Nyong’o won an Actor from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and assuming BAFTA follows suit, the Oscar should be hers. I wish the other nominees – particularly June Squibb– had a leg in this race, but I’ve no problem with Nyong’o winning for her stunning performance.

1. Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave

2. Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

3. June Squibb for Nebraska

4. Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine

5. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

We saw Jared Leto’s SAG win coming, and his eventual Oscar win will surprise few. Expect a win for Michael Fassbender at BAFTA since that group shut out Dallas Buyers Club completely. A Bradley Cooper upset is possible Hustle can find the right angle again in the wake of the 12 Years and Gravity resurgences.

1. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave

3. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle

4. Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips

Best Original Screenplay

Spike Jonze should win this, but this looks like a Hustle win.

1. David O. Russell and Eric Singer for American Hustle

2. Spike Jonze for Her

3. Bob Nelson for Nebraska

4. Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for Dallas Buyers Club

5. Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years wins, though Wolf has an outside shot at an upset.

1. John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave

2. Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street

3. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena

4. Billy Ray for Captain Phillips

5. Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight

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Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.