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Oscar Watching: “It’s So Fluffy”… and Awful?

12 Years a Slave

Best Picture

Two films top the Oscar-prediction lists of just about every prognosticator in the game: 12 Years a Slave, which finally picked up a best picture win from a critics group – a peculiar statement given that only a week or so into the onslaught of critics awards – the Boston Society of Film Critics (BSFC), and Gravity, named alongside Her as the best film of 2013 by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA).

The American Film Institute (AFI) listed 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Fruitvale Station, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks, and The Wolf of Wall Street as its best films of 2013.

Llewyn, by the way, scored a per-theater average of $101,353 from four locations. Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co. gave Lee Daniels’ The Butler a re-release at more than 900 locations. Don’t expect Harvey to give up on that one – arguably TWC’s best shot at a picture nod – so easily.

1. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

3. American Hustle (David O. Russell)

4. Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

5. Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)

6. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

7. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels)

8. Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan and Joel Coen)

9. Her (Spike Jonze)

10. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
11. Philomena (Stephen Frears)
12. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
13. Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
14. Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallée)
15. August: Osage County (John Wells)
16. Blue is the Warmest Color (Abdellatif Kechiche)
17. Prisoners (Denis Villeneuve)
18. Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
19. Before Midnight (Richard Linklater)
20. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Ben Stiller)
21. Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
22. Rush (Ron Howard)
23. All is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
24. Short Term 12 (Destin Cretton)
25. Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

SAG Predictions – Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

The closest thing SAG has to a best picture race. 12 Years feels like the only sure thing, honestly, while the star power of Hustle’s smaller cast might propel it to a nod (and win?) here. August: Osage County felt locked for this nomination – if not more – when it got the green-light, but stacked competition and tepid response to the film itself suggest otherwise. But SAG likes recognizing big, starry casts, so August and Lee Daniels’ The Butler seem safe for nominations. Nebraska is a bit of a wildcard, but hey, Alexander Payne’s last two films got in.

1. American Hustle

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

4. Nebraska

5. August: Osage County

6. Blue Jasmine
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Prisoners
9. Saving Mr. Banks
10. The Wolf of Wall Street

12 Years a Slave

Golden Globe Predictions – Drama

Like the Oscars, it looks like 12 Years vs. Gravity. Voters might greet Saving Mr. Banks as they would a spoonful of sugar. (I’m sure this won’t be the only time you see such a pun this awards season.) The HFPA loves Woody Allen and Judi Dench, so Blue Jasmine and Philomena get in, right? (I’ve read that the HFPA didn’t care too much for Fruitvale or Lee Daniels’ The Butler, by the way, so keep that in mind.)

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Gravity

3. Saving Mr. Banks

4. Philomena

5. Blue Jasmine

6. Captain Phillips
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
9. Prisoners
10. All is Lost

Golden Globe Predictions – Musical or Comedy

Hustle might boogie on down to a win in this race – not to mention the two lead acting races. The combo of Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts in August should get the film in – even if the latter misses out on a nomination. Am I crazy for predicting the HFPA to shut out Llewyn here?

1. American Hustle

2. Nebraska

3. The Wolf of Wall Street

4. August: Osage County

5. Her

6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Enough Said
8. Before Midnight
9. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
10. The Heat

 

Can David O. Russell finally win a Golden Globe?

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The Author

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.