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Oscar Watching: Consensus Evades 2013

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

 

Blanchett pulls ahead with her NYFCC win. Sandra Bullock needs a major win soon or else she’s out of the running. Our insight grows dim beyond that, however. Adams might pull off a nomination (if not more) since Hustle has emerged as a contender. Adèle Exarchopoulos looks like the token newcomer if there is one, but can Brie Larson steal her thunder?

Will Dench and Thompson compete for attention from voters across the pond? The motion-picture academy’s shown more consistent love for Dench in recent years, but voters loved Thompson in the early-to-mid 90s. Their acclaimed performances in juicy roles lead films that will contend for other major Oscars. However, I imagine The Weinstein Co. helps Dench’s chances more than Disney helps those of Thompson. Then again, Thompson just won the NBR, which clearly helps.

And as always, Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep, so keep that in mind. Not sure if the race matters beyond the top nine despite the obvious passion some circles have for Julie Delpy.

1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

2. Sandra Bullock for Gravity

3. Amy Adams for American Hustle

4. Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks

5. Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color

6. Judi Dench for Philomena
7. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
8. Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Enough Said
9. Brie Larson for Short Term 12
10. Julie Delpy for Before Midnight

Also worth mentioning: Sophie Nélisse for The Book Thief, Kate Winslet for Labor Day, Bérénice Bejo for The Past, Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha, Paulina García for Gloria, Shailene Woodley for The Spectacular Now, Rooney Mara for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Felicity Jones for The Invisible Woman, Rooney Mara for Side Effects, Alexandra Roach for One Chance, Lake Bell for In a World…, Jennifer Lawrence for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Amanda Seyfried for Lovelace

Does Matthew McConaughey still lead my picks?

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The Author

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren

Donovan Warren loves the wonderful world of film and all that comes with it. He specifically loves long takes, fabulous actresses, and keeping up with the Oscar season - even when it's far too early to make sense of anything.