John’s Final Oscar Predictions – Will LINCOLN Sweep The Major Categories?
At the risk of looking foolish I am sticking to my gut feeling in my oscar predictions and going with the films that, 1) I truly think will win, and 2) a couple of choices I believe should win. From the moment the nominations were announced it has been a crazy countdown to Hollywood’s biggest night, and I think the nuttiness will continue with more than a few surprises Oscar night. Hopefully host Seth McFarland will be as irreverent as the TV censors allow, hopefully the show moves fast and is entertaining, and hopefully it does not leave me fuming. This year will be tough, the first Oscar ceremony without my wife with me, (she died of brain cancer at age forty five last April), so there will be something very special missing. My youngest daughter Ariana, 13, will sit up and watch with me, hoping for her hero Jennifer Lawrence to win.
Here we go, with a short explanation for each.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY — LINCOLN — Tony Kushner wrote a masterful screenplay based on astounding source material, choosing to focus on, not the life of Lincoln but his last few months in office. Both literate and passionate it is among the best scripts of the last twenty five years. Should win easily….
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — ZERO DARK THIRTY — Because it is the best in the category, no other reason.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS — ANNE HATHAWAY IN LES MISERABLES — Was there really any sense nominating anyone else?
BEST ACTRESS — JENNIFER LAWRENCE IN SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK — Because she gave the best performance by an actress last year, because she deserves it, because she is hugely talented as well as a franchise player (The Hunger Games). Yes she is young, but does she seem young? No, she is wise beyond her years and that is why she wins, and good for her.
BEST ACTOR — DANIEL DAY-LEWIS IN LINCOLN — Day-Lewis becomes the first actor in film history to be a three time Best Actor winner, and rightly so for his magnetic performance as Lincoln. There were times during the film I forgot I was watching a movie was was pulled into the time and place by Day-Lewis perfect performance. I think most people left the cinema thinking they had seen Lincoln, the man, for the first time. A superb piece of acting.
BEST DIRECTOR — STEVEN SPIELBERG FOR LINCOLN — For this third Academy Award as Best Director, Spielberg took a step back from the visual flourishes he usually fills his films with and allowed the story and the actors to carry the day. He did the same with Schindler’s List (1993) though there was a decision to shoot hand held to give the film a sense of urgency, the perfect move for that film. Here he shoots the performances, gently, guding the story with the gentlest hand of his career. What he did was an artistic decision, one I hope is remembered long after we are all gone.
BEST PICTURE — LINCOLN — Call me crazy but I believe the Argo love in ends here. The Academy has gone their own way in the past, sometimes for the right, The Godfather Part II (1974), sometimes, not, Crash (2005), but I think here they will honor a film that deserves to be honored. Argo is a very good film, one of the years very best, but in thirty years we they be talking about Argo or Lincoln? Methinks the latter, hence my decision. Attack me, gloat the day after do your best, but those are my choices, for right or wrong.